Tax Reform
Landed Cost Impact
Real numbers for real products. Here's exactly how the tax reform changes what you pay — in 2026, 2027, and 2033.
Each example below uses a USD 100,000 CIF shipment imported to São Paulo. We compare three scenarios: 2026 (current system), 2027 (CBS starts, IPI eliminated), and 2033 (full reform complete).
Methodology notes
- • All calculations use SP as destination (ICMS 18%)
- • ICMS calculated using "gross-up" method (cálculo por dentro) for 2026/2027
- • CBS rate: 8.8%, IBS rate: 17.7% (reference rates, subject to final confirmation)
- • AFRMM (8% on freight) not included for clarity — it applies equally in all scenarios
- • II (Import Duty) rates from current TEC — unchanged by the reform
1. CNC machinery (HS 8458.11)
| Tax component | 2026 | 2027 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIF value | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| II (14%) | $14,000 | $14,000 | $14,000 |
| IPI (5%) | $5,700 | $0 | $0 |
| PIS (2.1%) | $2,100 | $0 | $0 |
| COFINS (9.65%) | $9,650 | $0 | $0 |
| CBS (8.8%) | $900 (test) | $10,032 | $10,032 |
| ICMS (SP 18%) | $28,900 | $28,900 | $0 |
| IBS (17.7%) | $100 (test) | $100 (test) | $20,178 |
| Total taxes | $61,350 | $53,032 | $44,210 |
| Effective rate | 61.4% | 53.0% | 44.2% |
| Savings vs 2026 | — | $8,318 | $17,140 |
Machinery benefits from IPI elimination in 2027 and ICMS→IBS shift by 2033. The IBS tax-exclusive calculation results in lower total than ICMS gross-up.
2. French wine, bottled (HS 2204.21)
| Tax component | 2026 | 2027 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIF value | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| II (27%) | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 |
| IPI (10%) | $12,700 | $0 | $0 |
| IS (Selective Tax) | — | ~$4,000 | ~$4,000 |
| PIS (2.1%) | $2,100 | $0 | $0 |
| COFINS (9.65%) | $9,650 | $0 | $0 |
| CBS (8.8%) | $900 (test) | $11,528 | $11,528 |
| ICMS (SP 25% — alcohol) | $50,600 | $50,600 | $0 |
| IBS (17.7%) | $100 (test) | $100 (test) | $23,186 |
| Total taxes | $103,050 | $93,228 | $65,714 |
| Effective rate | 103.1% | 93.2% | 65.7% |
| Savings vs 2026 | — | $9,822 | $37,336 |
Wine is heavily taxed today (over 100% effective rate). The reform plus EU-Mercosur tariff elimination (II 27% → 0% by 2038) would further reduce the total to ~39%.
3. Industrial chemicals (HS 2933 — organic)
| Tax component | 2026 | 2027 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIF value | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| II (12%) | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 |
| IPI (0% — most organic chemicals) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| PIS (2.1%) | $2,100 | $0 | $0 |
| COFINS (9.65%) | $9,650 | $0 | $0 |
| CBS (8.8%) | $900 (test) | $9,856 | $9,856 |
| ICMS (SP 18%) | $26,800 | $26,800 | $0 |
| IBS (17.7%) | $100 (test) | $100 (test) | $19,822 |
| Total taxes | $51,550 | $48,756 | $41,678 |
| Effective rate | 51.6% | 48.8% | 41.7% |
Chemicals with 0% IPI see smaller benefit from the reform. The gain comes from PIS/COFINS → CBS consolidation and ICMS → IBS (tax-exclusive base).
4. Consumer electronics (HS 8471 — laptops)
| Tax component | 2026 | 2027 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIF value | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| II (16%) | $16,000 | $16,000 | $16,000 |
| IPI (15%) | $17,400 | $0 | $0 |
| PIS (2.1%) | $2,100 | $0 | $0 |
| COFINS (9.65%) | $9,650 | $0 | $0 |
| CBS (8.8%) | $900 (test) | $10,208 | $10,208 |
| ICMS (SP 18%) | $32,100 | $25,380 | $0 |
| IBS (17.7%) | $100 (test) | $100 (test) | $20,530 |
| Total taxes | $78,250 | $51,688 | $46,738 |
| Effective rate | 78.3% | 51.7% | 46.7% |
| Savings vs 2026 | — | $26,562 | $31,512 |
Electronics see the biggest single-year improvement in 2027 due to 15% IPI elimination. No Selective Tax applies.
5. EU auto parts (HS 8708 — brake systems)
| Tax component | 2026 | 2027 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIF value | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| II (18%) | $18,000 | $18,000 | $18,000 |
| IPI (8%) | $9,440 | $0 | $0 |
| PIS (2.1%) | $2,100 | $0 | $0 |
| COFINS (9.65%) | $9,650 | $0 | $0 |
| CBS (8.8%) | $900 (test) | $10,384 | $10,384 |
| ICMS (SP 18%) | $30,500 | $25,800 | $0 |
| IBS (17.7%) | $100 (test) | $100 (test) | $20,886 |
| Total taxes | $70,690 | $54,284 | $49,270 |
| Effective rate | 70.7% | 54.3% | 49.3% |
Auto parts benefit from IPI elimination and ICMS→IBS shift. Combined with EU-Mercosur tariff reductions (II 18% → 0% by ~2033), effective rate drops further.
Summary: who wins most?
| Product | 2026 rate | 2033 rate | Reduction | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wine | 103.1% | 65.7% | -37.4pp | High ICMS on alcohol + IPI elimination |
| Electronics | 78.3% | 46.7% | -31.6pp | High IPI (15%) eliminated |
| Auto parts | 70.7% | 49.3% | -21.4pp | IPI + ICMS gross-up elimination |
| Machinery | 61.4% | 44.2% | -17.2pp | IPI + ICMS gross-up |
| Chemicals | 51.6% | 41.7% | -9.9pp | ICMS gross-up (IPI was already 0%) |
Use the calculator for your specific product
These examples use representative products. Your actual landed cost depends on your specific NCM code, II rate, IPI rate, and destination state. Use our Landed Cost Calculator for precise calculations based on current 2026 rates.